Sacramento Regional Blueprint Project
Award-wining regional visioning process with 4D modeling of transportation benefits.

The Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) worked with the Sacramento Transportation and Air Quality Collaborative, representing 60 business, government, environmental, and local community groups, to develop four long-range future land use and transportation scenarios: 1) current trends, 2) land use density at highest permitted levels with trend transportation, 3) density with Smart Growth neighborhood design and transit-focused transportation investment, 4) balanced land use for each sub-region.

All four scenarios accommodate the expected doubling of regional population over the next 50 years. In each case, substantial increases in auto use are projected. However, the dense, balanced, walkable scenarios would reduce the growth significantly, as supportive land use policies could increase the importance of transit and pedestrian modes.

Scenario 4D analysis included application of locally-calibrated 4D factors in conjunction with the conventional SACOG travel forecasting models. The existing best-practice SACOG travel forecasting models were refined to enhance sensitivity to neighborhood density, diversity, design and destination accessibility as exhibited in the region's household travel surveys. Statistical analysis helped define a set of enhancements to the modeling process to capture regionally-validated measures of 4D effects on vehicle trips and vehicle miles of travel.

Conclusion: Compared with current development trends, a combination of dense, walkable infill development near transit stations could reduce the growth in daily vehicle trips by 35% and in regional vehicle miles traveled by almost 50%.