San joaquin Valley Growth Response
Evaulation of regional land use and transportation alternatives using a suite of Smart Growth analysis models
The San Joaquin Valley Growth Response Study was a multi-year, multi-phase project sponsored by the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Caltrans was concerned that rapid, sprawling growth in California 's San Joaquin Valley was outpacing the ability of state and local agencies to provide adequate transportation and other public infrastructure and services.
The final phase saw development of a planning scenario-testing process for the Fresno region (whose population of nearly one million is expected to double in 30 years). The process is intended to be a prototype for regional and local governments throughout the San Joaquin Valley, enabling them to better identify and respond to development-related impacts, whether economic or environmental.
A suite of land use and transportation models was selected and developed to facilitate scenario testing. Specifically, the Growth Response Study planning process utilizes three distinct models:
- A land use allocation model, What If?, predicts future growth patterns based on current trends and policies to the year 2040. This trend-line projection of future growth is the base-case.
- INDEX, an indicator and visualization model, then analyzes and presents the impacts of both the trend scenario and one or more alternative scenarios for accommodating 2040 growth. INDEX indicators are presented via maps and graphics that allow for ready comparison of the base case to alternative scenarios.
- The final model was a 4Ds module that estimates travel demand changes resulting from changes in local land use factors between the baseline and alternative scenarios. The 4Ds module works in conjunction with the Council of Fresno County Governments four-step travel demand model.
Conclusion: Analysis of the Growth Response Study test scenarios indicates that feasible policy changes could significantly alter infrastructure costs and environmental effects of the region's growth. The modeling tools have been provided to local agencies for further use and development.
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